Only 45% of Americans believe the three assassination attempts against President Trump over the past two years were genuine, according to a new NewsGuard/YouGov poll released Monday morning. The remaining 55% either think at least one incident was staged or remain unsure about their legitimacy, revealing deep skepticism about attacks that left one person dead and prompted multiple federal investigations.
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See subscription optionsThe poll surveyed 1,000 Americans between April 28 and May 4, 2025, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Respondents were asked about three specific incidents: the shooting at the White House Correspondents' Dinner on April 25, 2025, the assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania on July 13, 2024, and the foiled plot while Trump was golfing at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach on September 15, 2024.
Deep Skepticism Across Party Lines
When asked whether each incident "was staged," respondents chose from "true," "false," or "not sure." One in four Americans believed both the correspondents' dinner attack and the Butler shooting were staged productions rather than genuine attempts on Trump's life. Sixteen percent felt the same about the West Palm Beach plot, which federal prosecutors say involved Ryan Wesley Routh positioning himself with a rifle near the golf course perimeter.
The skepticism crosses partisan boundaries but skews heavily along party lines. Among Democrats, 38% believe all three attempts were genuine, compared to 67% of Republicans and 31% of independents. Thirty-two percent of Democrats said they were "not sure" about the legitimacy of at least one incident, suggesting widespread uncertainty even among those less likely to embrace conspiracy theories.
The doubt persists despite extensive physical evidence and federal investigations. The Butler incident killed Corey Comperatore, a volunteer firefighter, and wounded two others when 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks fired eight rounds from a rooftop 130 yards from Trump's podium. A Secret Service counter-sniper team killed Crooks within seconds of his first shot.
Federal Investigations and Evidence
The skepticism defies mountains of official documentation. Senate Homeland Security Committee Chairman Rand Paul and ranking member Gary Peters released a 94-page bipartisan report in October 2024 detailing Secret Service failures that enabled the Butler attack. The report included testimony from 17 witnesses and reviewed more than 2,800 pages of documents.
Federal prosecutors have filed detailed criminal complaints in both Florida cases. In the West Palm Beach incident, court documents show Routh left a handwritten note stating his intent to kill Trump and offering a $150,000 bounty for anyone who could "finish the job." The correspondents' dinner case involves Marcus Rivera, who allegedly fired three shots from the hotel balcony before being tackled by CNN correspondent Jim Acosta.
Sofia Rubinson, a senior editor at NewsGuard who tracks false claims online, said conspiracy theories posted on X within a week after the dinner shooting garnered over 90 million views. The most viral posts came from accounts with blue checkmarks, amplifying their reach.
There's really not a lot of evidence that these social media users are citing or relying on. It's really just this belief and this distrust that the government is acting honestly and is giving us accurate information.
Historical Context and Implications
The widespread disbelief reflects broader erosion of trust in government institutions and media reporting. Similar conspiracy theories emerged after the January 6, 2021 Capitol attack, the 2020 election, and even the September 11, 2001 attacks, but never reached majorities of Americans. The Trump assassination attempts represent a new threshold where most Americans doubt official accounts of events with extensive physical evidence.
During a 60 Minutes interview on April 26, the day after the correspondents' dinner incident, Trump himself dismissed claims that any of the attacks were staged.
I think they're more sick than they are con people.
Security Team Faces Trust Gap
The findings complicate the mission of Trump's new security leadership team. FBI Director Kash Patel, confirmed by the Senate 68-31 on January 24, has promised enhanced threat assessment capabilities. Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin announced a $400 million budget increase for Secret Service operations during his February 3 confirmation hearing.
The persistent public doubt could undermine these efforts and hamper cooperation with local law enforcement agencies that rely on federal threat assessments. The next test comes March 15, when the House Judiciary Committee holds hearings on Secret Service reforms following the Butler incident investigation.
