Midterms 2026 · Nov. 3
Who will control Congress?
Every House seat, Senate race and governor’s contest, rated by the InsiderWire politics desk.
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How we rate races
Ratings are the judgment of the InsiderWire politics desk, not the output of a forecast model. Every race sits on a seven-step scale. Safe means we do not expect a competitive contest. Likely means one party is clearly favored but an upset is possible. Lean means a real contest in which one side has a modest edge, and Toss-up means either party can win. Editors revisit ratings as polling, fundraising and our own reporting change.
How we call races
Calls are made by the InsiderWire politics desk, not a wire service. An editor's call is published only after a second editor confirms it; a senior editor's call is published directly. We call a race when the remaining vote cannot change the outcome. If a call proves wrong we retract it and say so here.