Sen. Bill Cassidy faces potential defeat in Saturday's Louisiana Republican primary after President Trump threw his support behind Rep. Julia Letlow, punishment for the incumbent's vote to convict Trump after the January 6 Capitol breach.
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See subscription optionsAn Emerson College poll released last month shows Cassidy running third among likely Republican voters, with Letlow and state treasurer John Fleming locked in a tight race for first place. The survey marks a stunning reversal for a two-term incumbent in a deep-red state where Republicans typically cruise to reelection.
Trump's January endorsement of Letlow came with a clear message about loyalty. The president's backing of Cassidy's challenger represents the latest test of Trump's influence over Republican primaries and his willingness to target GOP senators who crossed him during his presidency.
Trump's Revenge Campaign Takes Aim
The gastroenterologist from Baton Rouge, who co-founded a clinic serving uninsured patients before entering politics, won his Senate seat in 2014 by defeating Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu. During Trump's first term, Cassidy helped architect the failed Republican effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act.
But Cassidy's relationship with Trump soured after the January 6, 2021 Capitol assault. He joined six other Republican senators in voting to convict Trump during the impeachment trial, though the effort fell short of the two-thirds majority needed for conviction.
Robert Hogan, a Louisiana State University political science professor, said Trump's rejection of Cassidy likely sealed the senator's fate. "This is a primary that is mostly about Trump," Hogan told reporters, calling the president's opposition probably the "death knell" for Cassidy's Senate career.
Cassidy attempted to repair the relationship by casting what proved to be the deciding vote to confirm Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as health secretary. But the gesture appears to have come too late to salvage his standing with Trump or Republican primary voters.
Pattern of Political Retribution
Should Cassidy lose Saturday, he would join a growing list of Republicans whose careers ended after defying Trump. Earlier this month, five of seven Republican Indiana state senators who blocked a Trump-backed gerrymandering effort lost their primaries. In North Carolina, Sen. Thom Tillis opted for retirement after breaking with Trump on domestic policy.
The Louisiana race demonstrates Trump's continued grip on the Republican Party and his long memory for perceived slights. Unlike previous presidents who typically stayed out of intraparty battles, Trump has made targeting disloyal Republicans a hallmark of his political operation.
Fleming, the state treasurer and former congressman who also jumped into the race after Trump's Letlow endorsement, adds another variable to Saturday's contest. His presence could split the anti-Cassidy vote, though polling suggests both challengers remain viable.
Louisiana's Republican primary uses a jungle primary system where all candidates compete on the same ballot. If no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote Saturday, the top two finishers advance to a runoff election.
Saturday's results will provide the latest measure of Trump's endorsement power and whether Republican voters remain willing to oust incumbents who challenged the president during his first term. With Cassidy trailing in polls, the writing may already be on the wall for the two-term senator's political future.
